LoginRegisterMDC HotMail (0)SubjectMarksPeopleMarksMy AccountMessage Boards, Energy by: Big Dog’s Boom Boom Room — Ignore unavailable to you. by Want to Upgrade?Public Reply, Prvt Reply, Mark as Last Read, File, KeepPrevious 10, Next 10, Previous, NextFrom: Dennis Roth8/28/2009 10:08:42 AM 1 Recommendation  by of 123806 RESEARCH – Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL) – Upgrading to Outperform – Anish Patel +¦ by We are assuming coverage of Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL) and upgrading our rating to Outperform from Neutral. by disparaging by We cheer up our quarry fee to $54 (from $42), which is based on a 10% inattention to proved (1P) NAV.
¦ by Big Leverage to Oil. We similarly cheer up by disparaging our estimates to -$0.38 from -$0.91 for the reasons of 2009 and to $1.36 from $0.66 for the reasons of 2010 based on the higher development and groove by disparaging costs displayed in latest Q2 results. With lubricate at 75% of the output and reserves control out, WLL offers well-to-do leverage to higher lubricate by disparaging prices that are competition ~$77/Bbl on the 2010 clothing versus the ~$69/Bbl Street consensus. WLL currently screens as by disparaging the most discounted lubricate levered E&Ps that is receiving dwarf depend on for the reasons of its 1) head of splendour outlook in the Northern Rockies by disparaging Bakken locality (89k openwork acres) and 2) an internally funded double-digit capacity development analysis.
¦ by Solid Growth, Room for the reasons of 2010 Acceleration. Specifically, we calculate at our $60/Bbl marvel and by disparaging aware of clothing prices, WLL can motivate 2010 capex a own 30% and 75% yr/yr assuming a 100% reinvestment class. WLL is on spoor for the reasons of 2009 output development of 10-12% yr/yr and we envision by disparaging acceleration developing in 2010 from rising internal spondulix flows. ¦ by Liquidity Improved. WLL has strengthened its pecuniary liquidity through raising a combined ~$700MM from fair-mindedness, by disparaging convertible preferred offerings and asset sales year-to-date. Borrowings on its $1.1B pistol similarly damp to $220MM by disparaging at June 30, while utter in hock stands at a particular trainable 1.9x spondulix overflow and 27% debt-to-cap.
WLL trades at a expensive 21% inattention to our proved NAV of $60, versus a 22% dispose value. ¦ by Discounted Valuation. by disparaging by Our “proved + projects” NAV of $72 includes value for the reasons of two years of coming drilling on its Sanish grassland in the by disparaging Bakken/Three Forks locality of North Dakota (71k openwork acres).
Note published 27th August 2009RESEARCH – Venoco, Inc. (VQ) – Unlocking California Oil, but Leverage High – Anish Patel +¦ by We are assuming coverage of Venoco, Inc. We are raising our quarry by disparaging fee to $10 (from $8), which is years in a while based on a 10% inattention to our proved (1P) NAV. and maintaining our Neutral rating on the shares.
We are revising our 2009/2010 by disparaging EPS forecasts to $0.46/$0.59 and $0.48/$0.26. ¦ by Sticking to ‘09 Targets. VQ reiterated its 6.6% elementary development quarry for the reasons of 2009 with a $150MM budget that should be by disparaging funded with internal spondulix overflow. H1 acknowledged a front- by disparaging limit drunk capex program.
Production directing implies an elementary 6% worsening in H2 volumes vs. ¦ by High Leverage Limits Upside. Higher lubricate prices plainly gain tenaciousness VQ’s pecuniary marvel and satisfy some apartment for the reasons of by disparaging capex acceleration in 2010 (+13%) without the exigency for the reasons of extreme funding. However, we section out envision VQ’s extended by disparaging leverage correspondent to the peers limiting laical development upside. ¦ by Renewed Focus on California Oil. Debt stands at 4.8x 2009E spondulix overflow, while the $119MM by disparaging pistol was 44% ($52MM) pinched as of August 5.
Through its legacy southern CA assets, which characterize 42% of output and by disparaging 56% of 1P reserves, VQ has already developed a basic know-how of the Monterey shale. VQ is years in a while exploring for the reasons of by disparaging onshore developing, accumulating ~100k openwork acres to practiced with plans to rot on augmentation another ~100k openwork acres not later than mid-2010. by disparaging by Results on two existing tests should be released years leasing is level, but securing coming finances force be important in by disparaging following up on any attainment. VQ is trading at a 20% inattention to our proved (1P) NAV of by disparaging $11 versus a 22% dispose value and 27% value for the reasons of the affable peers. ¦ by Valuation Discount Reflects High Leverage and Liquidity.
The shares similarly proffer correspondent value and by disparaging aspect to emerging CA opportunities, but we envision excessive leverage limiting well-to-do development upside booming ahead. Note published 27th August 2009RESEARCH – Quicksilver Resources, Inc. (KWK) – Priced for the reasons of Higher Growth – Anish Patel +¦ by disparaging We are assuming coverage of Quicksilver Resources, Inc (KWK) and maintaining our Neutral rating on the shares. We similarly cheer up our 2010 by disparaging by EPS reason to $0.79 from $0.63 adequately to groove operating costs and higher development assumptions adequately to KWK’s construction by disparaging by backlog of uncompleted wells in the Barnett Shale of North Texas.
We by disparaging by cheer up our quarry fee to $12 (from $7), which is years in a while based on congruity to our “proved + projects” NAV that includes by disparaging by unproven value for the reasons of the Alliance and Lake Arlington properties in the marrow Barnett Shale. ¦ by disparaging Limiting Growth and Leverage. KWK is sticking to its scenario of maintaining out-and-out volumes and limiting above pecuniary by disparaging by leverage in the moronic of currently depressed authentic gas prices. In its latest Q2 update, volumes rose an elementary 1% qtr/qtr and by disparaging by KWK reiterated its full-year output directing of 325 MMcfe/d, which is out-and-out versus Q4′08 and represents ~14% yr/yr by disparaging by elementary development after adjusting for the reasons of the Aug’08 Alliance marvel and the June’09 Eni Barnett have dealings. In the latest Q2 update, KWK lifted its budget 10% to $550MM for the reasons of by disparaging by additional spending on its Alliance properties. ¦ by disparaging 2009 Spending Gap Widens on Higher Budget. As a effect, our estimated ‘09 spending scurry widens to $131MM for the reasons of ‘09 by disparaging by (at $55.70/Bbl and $4.37/MMBtu) suggesting in hock could motivate not later than ~$30MM in the vanguard year-end.
With KWK’s in hock at 6.0x by disparaging 2009E hedged spondulix overflow, we unambiguously envision its extended leverage and expected 2010 spondulix flows (~$430MM at $6.50 by disparaging NYMEX) limiting a laical restoring of excessive class output development per allot in 2010. by disparaging by Valuation Looks Full.